ISM® REPORTS: Economic Improvement To Continue – Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills Report Projected Revenue Increases For The Rest Of 2023

TEMPE, Ariz. - May 8, 2023 - The U.S. economy will continue to softly expand for the rest of 2023, say the nation`s purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2023 Semiannual Economic Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2023 are similar to those expressed in December 2022, despite continued inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Business Survey Committees. The forecast was presented today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Anthony S. Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.

Manufacturing Summary
Revenue for 2023 is expected to increase, on average, by 1.7 percent. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the December 2022 forecast of 5.5 percent, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent compared to 2022. Twenty percent say revenues will decrease (14.6 percent, on average), and 40 percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 82 percent and projected increases in capital expenditures (0.4 percent), prices paid for raw materials (2.3 percent) and employment (0.5 percent) by the end of 2023, manufacturing continues its comeback from the turmoil that began in 2020 and is expected to continue through this year. [With 10 manufacturing sector industries expecting revenue growth in 2023 and 11 industries expecting employment growth in 2023, panelists forecast that recovery will continue the rest of the year, albeit somewhat softer than originally expected. Sentiment in each sector was generally consistent with industry performance reports in the April 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®, as well as the fall Semiannual Economic Forecast conducted in December," says Fiore.

Ten of 18 industries report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2023, listed in order: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services Summary
Respondents expect a 2.7-percent net increase in overall revenues, which is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent compared to 2022. Meanwhile, 11 percent expect their revenues to decrease (11.1 percent, on average), and 51 percent indicate no change. [The services sector will continue to grow for the rest of 2023. Services companies are currently operating at 91 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 4.3 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to increase 0.7 percent. Fourteen industries forecast increased revenues, down from the 14 industries that predicted increases in December 2022," says Nieves.

Fourteen of 18 industries expect revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

OPERATING RATE

Manufacturing
Purchasing and supply executives report that their companies are operating, on average, at 82 percent of normal capacity, 6.4 percentage points lower than the figure reported in December 2022. The 11 industries reporting operating capacity levels above the average rate of 82 percent - listed in order - are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Services
Organizations are operating, on average, at 91 percent of normal capacity, according to Business Survey Committee respondents. This is 1.1 percentage points higher compared to December 2022. The 10 industries operating at capacity levels above the average rate of 91 percent - listed in order - are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Other Services; Educational Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Public Administration; and Information.

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

Manufacturing
Production capacity is expected to increase 0.4 percentage point in 2023; in December, panelists reported an increase of 6.7 percent for 2022 and projected an increase of 5.3 percent this year. Twenty-six percent of respondents expect capacity increase of, on average, 12.3 percent; 14 percent expect decreases of, on average, 18.7 percent; and 60 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 - listed in order - are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Paper Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components.

Services
The capacity to produce products or provide services in the services sector is expected to increase 2 percent in 2023. This compares to an increase of 3.9 percent reported for 2022 and a December projection of a 3.4-percent increase for this year. Seventeen percent of services respondents expect their capacity for 2023 to increase, on average, 16.4 percent, and 5 percent foresee capacity decreasing, on average, 16.5 percent. Seventy-eight percent expect no change in capacity. The 11 industries expecting production capacity increases for 2023 - listed in order - are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services.

PREDICTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES - 2023 vs. 2022

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a 0.4-percent point increase in capital expenditures in 2023, lower than the 2.6-percent increase forecast by the panel in December. Twenty-four percent of respondents predict increased (on average, 23.6 percent) capital expenditures in 2023, 20 percent said their capital spending would decrease (on average, 26.7 percent), and 56 percent expect no change. The eight industries expecting capital expenditure increases for 2023 - listed in order - are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.

Services
This year, services purchasing and supply executives expect a capital expenditures increase of 4 percent compared to 2022. The 40 percent of members expecting to spend more predict an average increase of 18.2 percent, 15 percent anticipate an average decrease of 21.2 percent, and 45 percent expect no change in capital expenditures in 2023. The 13 industries expecting an increase in capital expenditures - listed in order - are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Utilities; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Accommodation & Food Services; Mining; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Retail Trade.

PRICES - Changes Between End of 2022 and May 2023

Manufacturing
In the December forecast, respondents predicted an increase of 2.5 percent in prices paid during the first four months of 2023; they report prices increased by 2.3 percent. The 47 percent who say their prices are higher now than at the end of 2022 report an average increase of 8.6 percent, while 23 percent reported lower prices (by 7.7 percent, on average). The remaining 30 percent indicated no change for the period. Fourteen manufacturing industries reported an increase in prices paid for the first part of 2023, listed in order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Textile Mills; Plastics & Rubber Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Chemical Products.

Services
Services respondents report that purchases during the first four months of this year cost an average of 5.1 percent more than at the end of 2022. This is 0.3 percentage point less than the 5.4-percent increase predicted in December. Sixty-four percent of services respondents report that prices increased, on average, 8.9 percent; 9 percent report price decreases of, on average, 5.9 percent; and 27 percent indicate no change. Seventeen of 18 industries reported an increase in prices paid in the first part of 2023, listed in order: Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Construction.

PRICES - Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023

Manufacturing
Survey respondents expect a year-over-year, net-average prices increase of 1 percent for 2023. With respondents reporting price increases of 2.3 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to ease slightly over the rest of the year. Forty percent of respondents project prices to increase, on average, 7.5 percent for the full year, 24 percent anticipate a decrease (8.2 percent, on average), and 36 percent expect no change. The 10 industries expect price increases for all of 2023, listed in order are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Printing & Related Support Activities; Computer & Electronic Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; and Furniture & Related Products.

Services
This year, services respondents expect prices to increase, on average, 4.3 percent compared to the end of 2022. With respondents reporting an increase of 5.1 percent through April 2023, prices are projected to decrease over the rest of the year. Fifty-four percent of respondents anticipate increases of, on average, 9.3 percent; 11 percent expect decreases of, on average, 6 percent; and 35 percent do not expect prices to change. Seventeen of 18 industries project price increases for all of 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Public Administration; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Construction; and Retail Trade.

EMPLOYMENT

Employment – Predicted Changes Between End of 2022 and End of 2023

Manufacturing
ISM`s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee respondents forecast that sector employment in 2023 will increase 0.5 percentage point year over year. Twenty-five percent of respondents expect employment to be, on average, 7.6 percent higher; 15 percent predict employment to decrease, on average, 9 percent; and 60 percent expect employment levels to be unchanged. The 11 industries projecting employment growth during 2023 - listed in order - are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Chemical Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Paper Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Transportation Equipment.

Services
Sector employment will increase 0.7 percent in 2023, according to the forecast of ISM`s Services Business Survey Committee respondents. For the remaining months of the year, 27 percent expect employment to increase, on average, 6.9 percent; 15 percent anticipate employment to decrease, on average, 7.6 percent; and 58 percent expect no change in employment levels. The 11 industries anticipating increases in employment - listed in order - are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Educational Services.

BUSINESS REVENUES

Business Revenues Comparison - 2023 vs. 2022

Manufacturing
Increased revenues are expected this year, as purchasing and supply management executives predict an overall net increase of 1.7 percent compared to 2022. This is 3.8 percentage points lower than the 5.5-percent increase forecast in December, and 7.6 percentage points lower than the 9.3-percent year-over-year increase reported for 2022. Forty percent of respondents say that revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 11.6 percent; 20 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 14.6 percent; and 40 percent forecast no change. The 10 manufacturing industries expecting increases in revenue in 2023 - listed in order - are: Primary Metals; Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Petroleum & Coal Products.

Services
This year, services purchasing and supply management executives predict a net increase of 2.7 percent in sector business revenue compared to 2022. This is 0.4 percentage point lower than the 3.1-percent increase forecast in December, but 0.6 percentage point higher than the 2.1-percent increase reported for 2022. Thirty-eight percent of respondents indicate revenues for 2023 will increase, on average, 10.2 percent; 11 percent say their revenues will decrease, on average, 11.1 percent; and 51 percent expect no change. Fourteen of 18 services industries project revenue increases in 2023, listed in order: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Other Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

SPECIAL QUESTION TOPIC No. 1: HIRING WORKERS TO FILL OPEN POSITIONS